MeritValue

VALVOLINE INC

VVVdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

VALVOLINE INC earns about 13% on invested capital, and has bought back 30% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $33.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.04B1$1.24B2$1.44B3$1.62B3$1.71B3
Net income$420.3M4$424.3M5$1.42B6$211.5M6$210.7M6
Operating cash flow$403.9M7$284.2M8−$40.8M9$265.1M9$297.2M9
Capital expenditure$103.1M10$132M11$180.5M12$224.4M12$259.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$300.8M7$152.2M8−$221.3M9$40.7M9$38M9
Total debt$1.65B13$1.69B14$1.59B15$1.09B16$1.07B16
Cash & equivalents$122.6M17$23.4M18$409.1M19$68.3M19$51.6M19
Diluted shares183.5M180.4M162.6M131.0M128.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$26.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$83.51

10 shares is a claim on $26.32 of net worth that earned you $16.38 and generated $2.95 of cash last year, against $83.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 6%FY23 14%FY24 18%FY25 16%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−30% shares · 5y

Share count is down 30% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$38M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$38M
Earnings Power Value
$33.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$420.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-22-000154 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001674910-23-000125 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001674910-24-000152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001674910-25-000135 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)