MeritValue

VirTra, Inc

VTSIdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

VirTra, Inc earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.8 and $6.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.4M1$28.3M2$38.3M3$26.4M3$22.4M3
Net income$2.54M4$1.96M5$8.65M6$1.36M6$258,4466
Operating cash flow−$125,7437−$2.69M8$6.68M9$1.26M10$4.59M10
Capital expenditure$3.45M11$3.22M12$1.13M13$1.85M14$1.52M14
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.57M7−$5.91M8$5.55M9−$588,30610$3.07M10
Total debt——$128,79015$7.8M16$7.54M15
Cash & equivalents$19.7M17$13.5M18$18.8M19$18M20$18.6M20
Diluted shares10.1M10.9M11.0M11.2M11.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$6.69

10 shares is a claim on $40.45 of net worth that earned you $0.23 and generated $2.73 of cash last year, against $6.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 10%FY23 36%FY24 4%FY25 0%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 5756% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.8 and $6.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.07M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.07M
Earnings Power Value
$1.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.96M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.88
Base5.0%$5.82
Bull10.0%$6.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010250 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012364 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010250 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012364 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010250 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012364 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000951 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010250 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012364 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000951 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000951 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010250 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012364 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000951 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012903 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)