MeritValue

Vitesse Energy, Inc.

VTSdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Vitesse Energy, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, and has bought back 91% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.52 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$167.8M1$281.9M2$233.9M3$242M3$274M3
Net income$18.1M4$118.9M5−$19.7M6$21.1M6$25.3M6
Operating cash flow$87M7$147M8$141.9M9$155M9$170.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.8M10$10M11$552,00011$2.97M11$1.33M11
Diluted shares438.6M438.6M29.6M32.9M39.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.39
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $159.11 of net worth that earned you $6.39 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 22%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−91% shares · 5y

Share count is down 91% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$21.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001944558-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001944558-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944558-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001944558-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001944558-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944558-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001944558-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001944558-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944558-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001944558-24-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001944558-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)