MeritValue

Ventas, Inc.

VTRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ventas, Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.83B1$4.13B2$4.5B3$4.92B3$5.83B3
Net income$56.6M4−$40.9M5−$30.3M6$88.4M6$261.5M6
Operating cash flow$1.03B7$1.12B8$1.12B9$1.33B9$1.65B9
Capital expenditure$1.8B10$900.7M11$649.5M12$2.53B12$2.93B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$775.9M7$219.5M8$470.4M9−$1.2B9−$1.28B9
Total debt$12.3B13$12.7B14$13.5B15$13.5B16$13B16
Cash & equivalents$149.7M17$122.6M18$508.8M19$897.9M20$741.1M20
Diluted shares386.3M403.5M405.7M416.4M462.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$270.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$27.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$281.25

10 shares is a claim on $270.79 of net worth that earned you $5.65 and generated −$27.7 of cash last year, against $281.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-23-000070 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000740260-23-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000740260-24-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000740260-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000740260-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)