MeritValue

Bristow Group Inc.

VTOLdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bristow Group Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.15B1$1.21B2$1.26B1$1.42B3$1.49B3
Net income−$15.8M4$9.22M5−$6.78M6$94.8M6$129.1M6
Operating cash flow$123.9M7−$7.73M8$32M9$177.4M9$198.4M9
Capital expenditure$31.1M10—$81.5M11$255.4M11$142M11
Free cash flow (derived)$92.8M7—−$49.5M9−$78M9$56.4M9
Total debt$1.05B12$1.02B13$1.1B14$1.38B15$1.34B15
Cash & equivalents$263.8M16$160M17$180.3M18$247.5M19$286.2M19
Diluted shares28.5M28.4M28.1M29.6M29.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$354.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$449.37

10 shares is a claim on $354.61 of net worth that earned you $43.19 and generated $18.87 of cash last year, against $449.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY22 —FY23 2%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$3.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.22M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001525221-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001525221-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001525221-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-22-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001525221-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001525221-22-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001525221-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001525221-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001525221-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)