Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.
VTMXdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.95 and $5.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $160.8M1 | $178M2 | $214.5M3 | $252.3M3 | $283.2M3 |
| Net income | $173.9M4 | $243.6M5 | $316.6M6 | $223.3M6 | $241.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $107.9M7 | $65.2M8 | $144.8M9 | $129.7M9 | $207.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $219,14310 | $219,88411 | $2.08M12 | $597,32912 | $837,37112 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $107.7M7 | $65M8 | $142.7M9 | $129.1M9 | $206.4M9 |
| Total debt | $943.5M13 | $940.6M14 | $923.8M15 | $854.2M15 | $1.29B15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $452.8M16 | $139.1M17 | $501.1M18 | $184M18 | $336.9M18 |
| Diluted shares | 648.4M | 682.6M | 884.5M | 884.5M | 848.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $32.37 of net worth that earned you $2.85 and generated $2.43 of cash last year, against $15.2 of debt.
It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.95 and $5.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth15.1%
- fcfBase$142.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth15.1%
- fcfBase$142.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$241.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.28 |
| Base | 15.1% | $3.4 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $4.36 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 15.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001969373-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001969373-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001969373-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)