MeritValue

Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc.

VTGNdata completeness 75%27 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vistagen Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -172% on equity, but has diluted owners by 477% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.11M1−$227,0002$1.06M3$486,0004$1.27M4
Net income−$47.8M5−$59.2M6−$29.4M7−$51.4M8−$69.7M8
Operating cash flow−$45.3M9−$49.7M10−$25.8M11−$42.1M12−$66.4M12
Capital expenditure$200,40013$528,00014$014——
Free cash flow (derived)−$45.5M9−$50.2M10−$25.8M11——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.1M15$16.6M16$119.2M17$67.1M18$30.8M18
Diluted shares6.6M7.0M19.4M30.9M38.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $9.33 of net worth that earned you −$18.3 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-172% avg · 5y
FY22 -74%FY23 -490%FY24 -26%FY25 -73%FY26 -196%

It earned an average -172% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+477% shares · 5y

Share count is up 477% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-018793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-018793 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001411685-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043271 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-018793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001411685-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001411685-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043271 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-018793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001411685-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001411685-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043271 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001851734-22-000349 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001411685-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-018793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001411685-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001411685-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001628280-26-043271 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)