VTEX

VTEXdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VTEX earns about -7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2,375.82 and $2,570.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$125.8M1$157.6M2$200.8M3$226.7M3$240.5M3
Net income−$60.5M4−$52.4M5−$15.8M6$15.8M6$20M6
Operating cash flow−$53M7−$29.2M8$5.41M9$26M9$33.4M9
Capital expenditure$1.38M10$340,00011$477,00012$2.07M12$1.04M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.4M7−$29.6M8$4.93M9$23.9M9$32.3M9
Total debt$3.28M13$1.15M14$014$014
Cash & equivalents$121M15$24.4M15$28M15$18.7M16$15.7M16
Diluted shares181.6M190.7M186,365192,334185,109

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12,613.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1,080.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$1,746.43
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $12,613.97 of net worth that earned you $1,080.98 and generated $1,746.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -26%FY22 -18%FY23 -5%FY24 6%FY25 9%

It earned about -7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2,375.82 and $2,570.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2,570.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2,375.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$55.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2,375.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,929.4
Base5.0%$2,375.82
Bull10.0%$2,909.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047908 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076504 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047908 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076504 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047908 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076504 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047908 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076504 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047908 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026601 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076504 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)