MeritValue

Victoria's Secret & Co.

VSXYdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Victoria's Secret & Co. earns about 32% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.6 and $36.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$6.79B1$6.34B2$6.18B3$6.23B3$6.55B3
Net income$646M4$348M5$109M6$165M6$161M6
Operating cash flow$851M7$437M8$389M9$425M9$499M9
Capital expenditure$169M10$164M11$256M12$178M12$187M12
Free cash flow (derived)$682M7$273M8$133M9$247M9$312M9
Total debt$986M13$1.28B14$1.13B15$981M16$979M16
Cash & equivalents$490M17$427M18$270M19$227M20$518M20
Diluted shares90.0M84.0M79.0M81.0M83.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$103.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.4
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$117.95

10 shares is a claim on $103.13 of net worth that earned you $19.4 and generated $37.59 of cash last year, against $117.95 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY22 89%FY23 31%FY24 15%FY25 12%FY26 14%

It earned about 32% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.6 and $36.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$247M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$247M
Earnings Power Value
$20.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$165M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.96
Base0.0%$36.96
Bull5.0%$47.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001856437-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001856437-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001856437-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001856437-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)