MeritValue

Vistra Corp.

VSTdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vistra Corp. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.3 and $86.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.7B1$15.6B2$13.8B3$14.8B3$17.6B3
Net income−$1.27B4−$1.23B5$1.49B6$2.66B6$944M6
Operating cash flow−$206M7$485M8$5.45B9$4.56B9$4.07B9
Capital expenditure$1.03B10$1.3B11$1.68B12$2.08B12$2.75B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.24B7−$816M8$3.78B9$2.49B9$1.32B9
Total debt$013$650M14$14.4B15$16.3B16$18.8B16
Cash & equivalents$1.33B17$455M18$3.49B19$1.19B20$785M20
Diluted shares482.2M422.4M375.2M352.6M345.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$147.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$545.14

10 shares is a claim on $147.46 of net worth that earned you $27.31 and generated $38.13 of cash last year, against $545.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 -18%FY23 13%FY24 14%FY25 4%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.3 and $86.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.49B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$75.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.49B
Earnings Power Value
$28.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$944M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $75.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$50.48
Base5.0%$75.34
Bull10.0%$105.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-23-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692819-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692819-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692819-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001692819-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)