MeritValue

VSE CORP

VSECdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VSE CORP earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 68% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$481.4M1$669.4M2$544M3$786.3M3$1.11B3
Net income$7.97M4$28.1M5$39.1M6$15.3M6$11.7M6
Operating cash flow−$17.6M7$8.05M8−$21.8M9−$31M9$27M9
Capital expenditure$10.5M10$11.2M11$18.7M12$20.7M12$21.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.1M7−$3.16M8−$40.5M9−$51.7M9$5.71M9
Total debt$569.1M13$572.6M14$858.7M15$860.3M16$585.6M16
Cash & equivalents$518,00017$305,00018$7.77M19$29.5M20$69.4M20
Diluted shares12.6M12.8M14.2M18.0M21.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$677.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$275.73

10 shares is a claim on $677.45 of net worth that earned you $5.51 and generated $2.69 of cash last year, against $275.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 1%FY23 -1%FY24 1%FY25 3%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+68% shares · 5y

Share count is up 68% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.95
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000102752-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102752-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000102752-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000102752-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)