MeritValue

VisionSys AI Inc

VSAdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VisionSys AI Inc earns about 1673% on equity, but has diluted owners by 236% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$374.5M1$357.8M2$193.7M3$160.4M4$149,0005
Net income−$74.7M6$12.4M7$1.46M8−$80.4M9$245.8M10
Operating cash flow$1.35M11−$3.99M12−$16.8M13−$16.6M14−$26.9M15
Capital expenditure————$10.9M16
Free cash flow (derived)————−$37.8M15
Total debt$30M17————
Cash & equivalents$61.5M18$51.7M19$39.4M20$6.62M21$7.86M22
Diluted shares57.6M57.7M53.9M50.0M193.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.68
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.76 of net worth that earned you $12.68 and generated −$1.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
1673% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 1673%

It earned an average 1673% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+236% shares · 5y

Share count is up 236% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.46M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000835 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049422 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001300 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054539 (Revenues)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001020 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000835 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049422 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001300 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000835 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049422 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001300 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054539 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001020 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000835 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000835 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049422 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-001300 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-054539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)