MeritValue

Vertiv Holdings Co

VRTdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vertiv Holdings Co earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.21 and $165.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5B1$5.69B2$6.86B3$8.01B3$10.2B3
Net income$119.6M4$76.6M5$460.2M6$495.8M6$1.33B6
Operating cash flow$210.9M7−$152.8M8$900.5M9$1.32B9$2.11B9
Capital expenditure$73.4M10$100M11$127.9M12$167M12$220M12
Free cash flow (derived)$137.5M7−$252.8M8$772.6M9$1.15B9$1.89B9
Total debt$5.97B13$6.38B14$5.88B15$5.86B16$5.83B16
Cash & equivalents$439.1M17$260.6M18$780.4M19$1.23B19$1.73B19
Diluted shares360.1M378.2M386.2M386.3M390.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$149.13

10 shares is a claim on $100.89 of net worth that earned you $34.12 and generated $48.48 of cash last year, against $149.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 17%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.21 and $165.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$165.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.15B
Earnings Power Value
$12.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$460.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.66
Base20.0%$85.68
Bull20.0%$85.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005248 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006498 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005905 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001674101-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)