MeritValue

VERISIGN INC/CA

VRSNdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $86.8 and $183.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.42B2$1.49B3$1.56B3$1.66B3
Net income$784.8M4$673.8M5$817.6M6$785.7M6$825.7M6
Operating cash flow$807.2M7$831.1M8$853.8M9$902.6M9$1.09B9
Capital expenditure$53M10$27.4M11$45.8M12$28.1M12$22.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$754.2M7$803.7M8$808M9$874.5M9$1.07B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$223.5M13$373.6M14$240.1M15$206.7M16$307.9M16
Diluted shares112.2M108.0M103.5M98.2M93.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$229.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$88.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$113.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$229.66 of net worth that earned you $88.03 and generated $113.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $86.8 and $183.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$183.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$874.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.1%
  • fcfBase$874.5M
Earnings Power Value
$86.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$785.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$136.49
Base5.1%$169.13
Bull10.1%$207.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014473-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014473-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014473-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014473-24-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014473-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014473-26-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014473-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014473-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014473-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014473-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014473-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014473-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001014473-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001014473-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001014473-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001014473-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)