MeritValue

Verisk Analytics, Inc.

VRSKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Verisk Analytics, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.19 and $86.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.46B1$2.5B2$2.68B3$2.88B3$3.07B3
Net income$666.2M4$953.9M5$614.6M6$958.2M6$908.3M6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$1.06B8$1.06B9$1.14B9$1.44B9
Capital expenditure$268.4M10$274.7M11$230M12$223.9M12$244.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$887.3M7$784.3M8$830.7M9$920.1M9$1.19B9
Total debt$4.29B13$5.14B14$2.9B15$3.61B16$6.28B17
Cash & equivalents$111.9M18$112.5M19$302.7M20$291.2M21$2.18B21
Diluted shares163.3M158.9M147.3M142.8M140.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$64.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$448.48

10 shares is a claim on $22.06 of net worth that earned you $64.84 and generated $85.09 of cash last year, against $448.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 17%FY23 29%FY24 28%FY25 21%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 46% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.19 and $86.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$920.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$920.1M
Earnings Power Value
$67.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$908.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$64.55
Base3.9%$81.69
Bull8.9%$107.79

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004083 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004945 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004945 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-004939 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004452 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)