MeritValue

VERRA MOBILITY Corp

VRRMdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VERRA MOBILITY Corp earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.87 and $3.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$550.6M1$741.6M2$817.3M3$879.2M3$979.1M3
Net income$41.4M4$92.5M5$57M6$31.4M6$136.6M6
Operating cash flow$193.2M7$218.3M8$206.1M9$223.6M9$255.8M9
Capital expenditure$25M10$48.2M11$57M12$70.9M12$119.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$168.2M7$170.2M8$149.1M9$152.8M9$136.7M9
Total debt$2.49B13$2.42B14$2.08B15$2.07B16$2.06B16
Cash & equivalents$101.3M17$105.2M18$136.3M19$77.6M19$65.3M19
Diluted shares163.8M159.0M160.0M167.7M161.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$127.48

10 shares is a claim on $18.16 of net worth that earned you $8.47 and generated $8.48 of cash last year, against $127.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 6%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 8%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.87 and $3.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$149.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$149.1M
Earnings Power Value
$3.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.87
Base0.0%$0.87
Bull5.0%$4.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005603 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023271 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029180 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067293 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)