MeritValue

Vireo Growth Inc.

VREOFdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vireo Growth Inc. earns about -15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 493% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$54.4M1$74.6M2$88.1M3$99.4M4$268.8M4
Net income−$33.7M5−$42.5M6−$25.5M7−$28M8−$68.1M8
Operating cash flow−$30.5M9−$18.1M10−$965,90611−$10.2M12$3.71M12
Capital expenditure$18M13$5.56M14$4.96M15$11.7M16$28.3M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$48.6M9−$23.6M10−$5.93M11−$21.9M12−$24.6M12
Total debt$54.7M17$116.1M17———
Cash & equivalents$15.2M18$15.1M19$16M20$91.6M20$122.5M20
Diluted shares123.8M128.1M135.2M180.4M734.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.93
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $4.18 of net worth that earned you −$0.93 and generated −$0.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-15% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -11%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -17%

It earned an average -15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+493% shares · 5y

Share count is up 493% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 112% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004519 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002130 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-029561 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002130 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-029561 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002130 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-029561 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004519 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002130 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-029561 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005294 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004519 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002130 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-029561 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)