MeritValue

Vera Bradley, Inc.

VRAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vera Bradley, Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$540.5M1$500M2$383.7M3$318.8M3$269.7M3
Net income$17.8M4−$59.7M5$7.84M6−$62.2M6−$47.8M6
Operating cash flow$39.9M7−$13.4M8$48M9−$14.1M9−$9.97M9
Capital expenditure$5.49M10$8.24M11$3.77M12$10.4M12$3.29M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.4M7−$21.7M8$44.2M9−$24.5M9−$13.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$88.4M13$46.6M14$77.3M15$28.6M16$18.5M16
Diluted shares34.4M31.5M31.3M28.9M27.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$47.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.15
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $47.18 of net worth that earned you −$17.15 and generated −$4.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY23 -37%FY24 5%FY25 -14%FY26 -23%

It earned an average -12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001495320-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001495320-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021640 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001495320-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001495320-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021640 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001495320-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001495320-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021640 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001495320-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001495320-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001628280-26-021640 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0001495320-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0001495320-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001495320-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001628280-26-021640 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)