Vishay Precision Group, Inc.

VPGdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vishay Precision Group, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.04 and $15.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$317.9M1$362.6M2$355M3$306.5M3$307.2M3
Net income$20.2M4$36.1M5$25.7M6$9.91M6$5.29M6
Operating cash flow$33.5M7$33M8$45.9M9$19.8M9$14.4M9
Capital expenditure$17.1M10$21.3M11$15.2M12$9.16M12$8.03M12
Free cash flow (derived)$16.5M7$11.7M8$30.7M9$10.7M9$6.35M9
Total debt$121.4M13$60.8M14$31.9M15$62.9M16$41.2M16
Cash & equivalents$84.3M17$88.6M18$84M18$79.3M19$87.4M19
Diluted shares13.7M13.7M13.7M13.4M13.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$252.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.92

10 shares is a claim on $252.64 of net worth that earned you $3.98 and generated $4.77 of cash last year, against $30.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 14%FY23 10%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 66% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.04 and $15.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.7M
Earnings Power Value
$15.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.9
Base0.0%$14.9
Bull5.0%$17.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001487952-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001487952-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001487952-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)