MeritValue

Voya Financial, Inc.

VOYAdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Voya Financial, Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $69.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.98B1$1.69B2$1.94B3$2.15B3$2.26B3
Net income$2.37B4$510M5$625M6$667M6$654M6
Operating cash flow$22M7$1.35B8$1.64B9$1.35B9$1.29B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.19B10$4.61B11$4.2B12$5.4B13$4.79B13
Cash & equivalents$1.4B14$1.01B15$1.12B16$1.51B17$1.35B17
Diluted shares125.8M110.2M108.8M101.4M97.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$508.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.15
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$492.2

10 shares is a claim on $508.52 of net worth that earned you $67.15 last year, against $492.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 6%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$69.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$654M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$84.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535929-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535929-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535929-26-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535929-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535929-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535929-26-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535929-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535929-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535929-26-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535929-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535929-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535929-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001535929-26-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001535929-22-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001535929-24-000035 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001535929-25-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001535929-26-000043 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)