MeritValue

VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LTD CO

VODdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LTD CO earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between €0.45 and €5.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€43.8B1€37B2€37.7B3€36.7B3€37.4B3
Net income€59M4€2.24B5€11.8B6€1.14B6−€4.17B6
Operating cash flow€17.2B7€18.1B8€18.1B9€16.6B9€15.4B9
Capital expenditure€5.41B10€4.55B11€4.96B12€4.22B12€4.32B12
Free cash flow (derived)€11.8B7€13.5B8€13.1B9€12.3B9€11B9
Total debt€67.8B13€70.1B14€66.4B15€57B16€53.1B16
Cash & equivalents€5.82B17€7.5B18€11.7B19€6.18B19€11B19
Diluted shares28.82B29.01B27.68B27.06B26.15B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€20.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−€1.59
Free cash flow it threw off
€4.23
Debt you’d be carrying
€20.32

10 shares is a claim on €20.17 of net worth that earned you −€1.59 and generated €4.23 of cash last year, against €20.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 11%FY24 1%FY25 -1%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €0.45 and €5.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€4.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.4%
  • fcfBase€12.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€5.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.4%
  • fcfBase€12.3B
Earnings Power Value
€0.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€1.14B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €5.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%€5.13
Base0.4%€5.24
Bull5.4%€6.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-24-071761 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-24-071761 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-24-071761 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-24-071761 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-071759 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001104659-24-071761 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001104659-22-071759 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001104659-23-073356 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001193125-25-136298 (CashAndCashEquivalents)