MeritValue

Vontier Corp

VNTdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vontier Corp earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.12 and $28.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.99B1$3.18B2$3.1B3$2.98B3$3.08B3
Net income$413M4$401.3M5$376.9M6$422.2M6$406.1M6
Operating cash flow$481.1M7$321.2M8$455M9$427.5M9$511M9
Capital expenditure$47.8M10$60M11$60.1M12$82.7M12$69.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$433.3M7$261.2M8$394.9M9$344.8M9$441.1M9
Total debt$5.18B13$5.18B14$2.4B15$2.19B16$2.6B16
Cash & equivalents$572.6M17$204.5M18$340.9M19$356.4M20$492.2M20
Diluted shares170.1M161.0M156.0M153.8M147.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$84.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.55
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$176.13

10 shares is a claim on $84.41 of net worth that earned you $27.55 and generated $29.93 of cash last year, against $176.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 15%FY24 15%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.12 and $28.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$394.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$394.9M
Earnings Power Value
$28.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$406.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24
Base0.0%$24
Bull5.0%$33.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786842-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786842-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001786842-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007648 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)