MeritValue

Viper Energy, Inc.

VNOMdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Viper Energy, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 92% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$717M1$854M1$1.35B1
Net income$200M2$359M2−$68M2
Operating cash flow$638M3$620M3$1.05B3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$1.08B4$2.19B4
Cash & equivalents—$27M5$13M5
Diluted shares74.2M93.9M142.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$312.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.77
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$153.37

10 shares is a claim on $312.07 of net worth that earned you −$4.77 last year, against $153.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 3y
FY23 18%FY24 18%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+92% shares · 3y

Share count is up 92% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 102% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$200M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002074176-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002074176-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002074176-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002074176-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002074176-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)