MeritValue

VORNADO REALTY TRUST

VNOdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

VORNADO REALTY TRUST earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.59B1$1.8B2$1.81B3$1.79B3$1.81B3
Net income$176M4−$346.5M5$105.5M6$70.4M6$905M6
Operating cash flow$761.8M7$798.9M8$648.2M9$537.7M9$1.26B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.56B10$2.56B11$2.56B12$2.57B13$2.26B13
Cash & equivalents$1.76B14$889.7M15$997M15$733.9M15$840.9M15
Diluted shares192.1M191.8M191.9M196.6M201.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$297.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$112.66

10 shares is a claim on $297.77 of net worth that earned you $45.01 last year, against $112.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -4%FY23 0%FY24 0%FY25 13%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$5.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$105.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899689-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899689-25-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899689-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899689-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899689-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899689-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899689-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899689-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899689-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899689-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899689-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000899689-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000899689-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000899689-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000899689-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)