MeritValue

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.

VNDAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. earns about -8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$268.7M1$254.4M2$192.6M3$198.8M3$216.1M3
Net income$33.2M4$6.28M5$2.51M6−$18.9M6−$220.5M6
Operating cash flow$64.2M7$32M8$12.8M9−$15.8M9−$109.4M9
Capital expenditure$552,00010$679,00011$383,00012$490,00012$998,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$63.7M7$31.3M8$12.4M9−$16.2M9−$110.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$52.1M13$135M14$135.8M15$102.3M16$84.9M16
Diluted shares56.9M57.0M57.6M58.1M58.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$37.41
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.74
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55.52 of net worth that earned you −$37.41 and generated −$18.74 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 -4%FY25 -45%

It earned an average -8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.51M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003785 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005761 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007460 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003785 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005761 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007460 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003785 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005761 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007460 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003785 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005761 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007460 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-002857 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-003785 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005761 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-007460 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)