MeritValue

VINCE HOLDING CORP.

VNCEdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VINCE HOLDING CORP. earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$322.7M1$357.4M2$292.9M3$293.5M4$300M4
Net income−$12.7M5−$38.3M6$25.4M7−$19M8$6.38M8
Operating cash flow−$221,0009−$19.3M10$1.64M11$22.1M12$2.99M12
Capital expenditure$5.06M13$2.78M14$1.46M15$4.23M16$4.29M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.28M9−$22M10$180,00011$17.8M12−$1.3M12
Total debt$91.5M17$111.6M18$44M19$19.2M20$19.5M20
Cash & equivalents$1.06M21$1.08M22$357,00023$607,00024$498,00024
Diluted shares11.9M12.2M12.5M12.6M13.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.88
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.88

10 shares is a claim on $38.32 of net worth that earned you $4.88 and generated −$0.99 of cash last year, against $14.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 0%FY23 -15%FY24 35%FY25 -22%FY26 10%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 79% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$180,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$180,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-015755 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-052254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-062847 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-158986 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)