MeritValue

VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC

VMIdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VALMONT INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $130.39 and $374.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.35B1$4.35B2$4.17B3$4.08B3$4.1B3
Net income$250.9M4$250.9M4$150.8M5$348.3M5$350.3M5
Operating cash flow$326.3M6$326.3M6$306.8M7$572.7M7$456.5M7
Capital expenditure$93.3M8$93.3M8$96.8M9$79.5M9$145M9
Free cash flow (derived)$233M6$233M6$210M7$493.2M7$311.4M7
Total debt$1.74B10$1.74B10$2.22B11$1.46B12$1.59B12
Cash & equivalents$185.4M13$185.4M13$203M14$164.3M15$187.1M15
Diluted shares21.6M21.6M21.2M20.3M19.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$818.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$175.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$156.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$798.18

10 shares is a claim on $818.97 of net worth that earned you $175.69 and generated $156.22 of cash last year, against $798.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 12%FY25 12%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $130.39 and $374.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$374.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.2%
  • fcfBase$311.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$273.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.2%
  • fcfBase$311.4M
Earnings Power Value
$130.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$250.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$175.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $273.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$152.77
Base10.2%$273.7
Bull15.2%$350.92

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-24 · accession 0000102729-23-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000102729-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000102729-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000102729-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)