MeritValue

Vulcan Materials CO

VMCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vulcan Materials CO earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $71.21 and $147.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.55B1$7.32B2$7.78B3$7.42B3$7.94B3
Net income$670.8M4$575.6M5$933.2M6$911.9M6$1.08B6
Operating cash flow$1.01B7$1.15B8$1.54B9$1.41B9$1.81B9
Capital expenditure$451.3M10$612.6M11$872.6M12$603.5M12$677.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$560.6M7$535.6M8$664.2M9$806.1M9$1.14B9
Total debt$7.76B13$7.85B14$7.76B15$10.6B16$8.72B16
Cash & equivalents$235M17$161.4M18$931.1M19$559.7M20$183.3M20
Diluted shares133.5M133.6M133.7M133.1M132.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$642.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$81.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$657.44

10 shares is a claim on $642.43 of net worth that earned you $81.14 and generated $85.55 of cash last year, against $657.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 8%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $71.21 and $147.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$147.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$806.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$806.1M
Earnings Power Value
$71.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$911.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$108.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$22.43
Base12.9%$85.1
Bull17.9%$117.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001396009-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001396009-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001396009-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009546 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)