VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP
VLYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileVALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 38% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.16 and $10.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.33B1 | $1.98B2 | $3.14B3 | $3.36B3 | $3.23B3 |
| Net income | $473.8M4 | $568.9M5 | $498.5M6 | $380.3M6 | $598M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $837.1M7 | $1.43B8 | $378.2M9 | $548.5M9 | $343.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $39.4M10 | $68.9M11 | $76M12 | $16.1M12 | $18.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $797.7M7 | $1.36B8 | $302.1M9 | $532.4M9 | $325.7M9 |
| Total debt | $655.7M13 | $138.7M14 | $917.8M15 | $72.7M16 | $91.5M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.05B17 | $947.9M18 | $891.2M18 | $1.89B18 | $1.58B18 |
| Diluted shares | 410.0M | 487.8M | 509.2M | 518.0M | 563.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $138.48 of net worth that earned you $10.61 and generated $5.78 of cash last year, against $1.62 of debt.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 38% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 86% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.16 and $10.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$325.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$325.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$498.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.9 |
| Base | 0.0% | $10.9 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $12.9 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-24-000065 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-24-000065 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-24-000065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-24-000065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-23-000043 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-24-000065 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000714310-25-000068 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000714310-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)