Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V.
VLRSdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion, S.A.B. de C.V. earns about -20% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.07 and $4.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | −$191.7M1 | $106.5M2 | −$80.2M3 | $7.82M3 | $126.4M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $213.7M4 | $785.4M5 | $613.6M6 | $729.8M6 | $1.09B6 |
| Capital expenditure | $157.1M7 | $186.1M8 | $347.1M9 | $480.8M9 | $583.1M9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $56.6M4 | $599.2M5 | $266.5M6 | $249.1M6 | $506.7M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $506.5M10 | $741.1M11 | $711.9M11 | $774.2M11 | $908M11 |
| Diluted shares | 1.00B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.15B | 1.15B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $3.17 of net worth that earned you $1.1 and generated $4.4 of cash last year.
It earned about -20% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.07 and $4.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$266.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$266.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$7.82M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $4.1 |
| Base | 0.0% | $4.1 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $4.9 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-053342 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054211 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001765 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-053342 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054211 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001765 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-053342 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054211 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001765 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054211 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001765 (CashAndCashEquivalents)