MeritValue

VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX

VLOdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $92.9 and $1,396.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$114B1$176.4B2$144.8B3$129.9B3$122.7B3
Net income$930M4$11.5B5$8.84B6$2.77B6$2.35B6
Operating cash flow$5.86B7$12.6B8$9.23B9$6.68B9$5.83B9
Capital expenditure$2.46B10$2.74B11$1.92B11$2.06B11—
Free cash flow (derived)$3.4B7$9.84B8$7.31B9$4.63B9—
Total debt$13.2B12$10.4B13$10.6B14$8.83B15$9.21B16
Cash & equivalents$4.12B17$4.86B18$5.42B19$4.66B20$4.69B20
Diluted shares407.0M396.0M353.0M322.0M309.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$767.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.99
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$298.06

10 shares is a claim on $767.8 of net worth that earned you $75.99 last year, against $298.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 42%FY23 30%FY24 12%FY25 9%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $92.9 and $1,396.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,396.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.31B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$756.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$7.31B
Earnings Power Value
$92.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$114.36
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $756.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$323.51
Base20.0%$756.98
Bull20.0%$756.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011499 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-23-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011499 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001035002-23-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001035002-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035002-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)