MeritValue

Valens Semiconductor Ltd.

VLNdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. earns about -20% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 212% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$70.7M1$90.7M2$84.2M3$57.9M3$70.6M3
Net income−$26.5M4−$27.7M5−$19.7M6−$36.6M6−$31.6M6
Operating cash flow−$21.6M7−$22.1M8−$6.36M9$1.02M9−$12.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.44M10$1.11M11$1.19M12$1.87M12$1.07M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.1M7−$23.2M8−$7.54M9−$848,0009−$13.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$56.8M13$20M14$17.3M15$35.4M16$27.9M16
Diluted shares33.0M97.8M102.0M105.5M103.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.06
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.34
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.18 of net worth that earned you −$3.06 and generated −$1.34 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -15%FY23 -11%FY24 -27%FY25 -32%

It earned an average -20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+212% shares · 5y

Share count is up 212% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017738 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017221 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020108 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017738 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017221 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017738 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017221 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017738 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017221 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020108 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-015828 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-017738 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017221 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)