MeritValue

Viking Therapeutics, Inc.

VKTXdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Viking Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 46% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$03$03
Net income−$55M4−$68.9M5−$85.9M6−$110M6−$359.6M6
Operating cash flow−$47.6M7−$48.4M8−$73.4M9−$87.8M9−$278.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$26.4M10$36.6M11$55.5M12$26.7M13$165.8M13
Diluted shares77.2M76.8M94.3M109.0M112.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$56.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$31.92
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $56.72 of net worth that earned you −$31.92 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -23%FY24 -10%FY25 -60%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46% shares · 5y

Share count is up 46% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012322 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027824 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046876 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012322 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027824 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046876 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012322 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027824 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046876 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-001685 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012322 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-046876 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)