MeritValue

Vital Farms, Inc.

VITLdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vital Farms, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.76 and $47.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$260.9M1$362.1M2$471.9M3$606.3M3$759.4M3
Net income$2.43M4$1.25M5$25.6M6$53.4M6$66.3M6
Operating cash flow$17.7M7−$8.1M8$50.9M9$64.8M9$33.7M9
Capital expenditure$16.7M10$10.5M11$11.5M12$28.6M12$82M12
Free cash flow (derived)$971,0007−$18.6M8$39.4M9$36.2M9−$48.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$31M13$12.9M14$84.1M15$150.6M16$48.8M16
Diluted shares43.3M43.5M43.3M45.1M46.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.48
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.33 of net worth that earned you $14.4 and generated −$10.48 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 1%FY23 24%FY24 45%FY25 22%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.76 and $47.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$47.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$36.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$36.2M
Earnings Power Value
$5.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$12.29
Base20.0%$26.69
Bull20.0%$26.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000950170-24-027602 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000950170-25-028365 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073423 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000950170-24-027602 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000950170-25-028365 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073423 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000950170-24-027602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000950170-25-028365 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073423 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000950170-24-027602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000950170-25-028365 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073423 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000950170-23-006950 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-027602 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028365 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001193125-26-073423 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)