Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $28.1 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $273.9M1 | $665.3M2 | $1.19B3 | $1.17B3 | $1.65B3 |
| Net income | −$102.7M4 | $50.7M5 | $269.5M6 | $397M6 | $477.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $93.8M7 | $401.4M8 | $689.8M9 | $712M9 | $959M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $153.3M10 | $321.3M11 | $479M12 | $688.4M12 | $1.05B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$59.5M7,10 | $80.1M8,11 | $210.7M9,12 | $23.6M9,12 | −$93.5M9,12 |
| Total debt | $539.8M13 | $611M14 | $549.3M15 | $616.1M16 | $1.45B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $202.9M17 | $315M18 | $244.4M19 | $213.3M20 | $764.3M20 |
| Diluted shares | 87.9M | 88.6M | 88.4M | 95.4M | 95.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $169.04 of net worth that earned you $49.79 and generated −$9.75 of cash last year, against $151.04 of debt.
It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 168% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$23.6M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$23.6M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$269.5M
- Growth assumed0.0%
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MeritValue on the App Store →- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (Revenue)
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- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (Revenue)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F filed 2024-04-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2024-04-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
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- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2022-04-26 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-120379 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2024-04-23 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2022-04-26 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-120379 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F filed 2024-04-23 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F filed 2025-04-09 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (CashAndCashEquivalents)