MeritValue

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.

VISTdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$273.9M1$665.3M2$1.19B3$1.17B3$1.65B3
Net income−$102.7M4$50.7M5$269.5M6$397M6$477.5M6
Operating cash flow$93.8M7$401.4M8$689.8M9$712M9$959M9
Capital expenditure$153.3M10$321.3M11$479M12$688.4M12$1.05B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$59.5M7$80.1M8$210.7M9$23.6M9−$93.5M9
Total debt$539.8M13$611M14$549.3M15$616.1M16$1.45B16
Cash & equivalents$202.9M17$315M18$244.4M19$213.3M20$764.3M20
Diluted shares87.9M88.6M88.4M95.4M95.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$169.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.79
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$151.04

10 shares is a claim on $169.04 of net worth that earned you $49.79 and generated −$9.75 of cash last year, against $151.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY20 -6%FY21 12%FY22 25%FY23 25%FY24 23%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 168% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
Earnings Power Value
$29.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$269.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-120379 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-120379 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-112976 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-107031 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076856 (CashAndCashEquivalents)