MeritValue

Vistance Networks, Inc.

VISNdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vistance Networks, Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.84 and $35.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.74B1$5.79B2$1.86B3$1.38B3$1.93B3
Net income−$462.6M4−$1.29B5−$1.51B6−$315.5M6$2.28B6
Operating cash flow$122.3M7$190M8$297.3M9$273.1M9$322.9M9
Capital expenditure$131.4M10$101.3M11$60.7M12$25.3M12$70.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$9.1M7$88.7M8$236.6M9$247.8M9$252.6M9
Total debt$9.51B13$9.5B14$9.28B15$9.24B16$7.26B16
Cash & equivalents$360.3M17$373M18$500.3M19$404.1M20$754.4M20
Diluted shares203.6M207.4M210.9M214.4M230.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$43.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$99.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$315.66

10 shares is a claim on −$43.66 of net worth that earned you $99.29 and generated $10.98 of cash last year, against $315.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 -10%FY23 1%FY24 6%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 24% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.84 and $35.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$35.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$247.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$247.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$12.89
Base20.0%$6.84
Bull20.0%$6.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003856 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003856 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022519 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-072523 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)