MeritValue

Virtu Financial, Inc.

VIRTdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Virtu Financial, Inc. earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.57 and $71.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$614.5M1$529.8M2$455.6M3$516.8M3$617M3
Net income$476.9M4$265M5$142M6$276.4M6$468.4M6
Operating cash flow$1.17B7$706.8M8$491.8M9$599M9$518.4M9
Capital expenditure$24.6M10$27.2M11$37.8M12$12.4M12$22.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.15B7$679.6M8$454M9$586.6M9$495.6M9
Total debt$1.67B13$1.8B14$1.73B15$1.74B16$2.04B16
Cash & equivalents$1.07B17$981.6M18$820.4M19$872.5M20$1.06B20
Diluted shares118.4M104.4M94.1M87.8M85.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$185.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$239.04

10 shares is a claim on $185.46 of net worth that earned you $54.9 and generated $58.09 of cash last year, against $239.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 25%FY23 16%FY24 29%FY25 40%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 22% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.57 and $71.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$495.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$495.6M
Earnings Power Value
$33.57
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$276.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$71.53
Base0.0%$71.53
Bull5.0%$91.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-23-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001592386-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001592386-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001592386-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001592386-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)