MeritValue

Vir Biotechnology, Inc.

VIRdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Vir Biotechnology, Inc. earns about -11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.1B1$1.62B2$86.2M3$74.2M3$68.6M3
Net income$528.6M4$515.8M5−$615.1M6−$522M6−$438M6
Operating cash flow−$47.6M7$1.66B8−$778.8M9−$446.4M9−$391.8M9
Capital expenditure$21.8M10$68M11$21.6M12$7.3M12$4.83M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$69.4M7$1.6B8−$800.4M9−$453.7M9−$396.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$347.8M13$848.6M14$241.6M15$222.9M15$232.2M15
Diluted shares133.4M134.8M134.1M136.2M138.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$31.62
Free cash flow it threw off
−$28.63
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55.25 of net worth that earned you −$31.62 and generated −$28.63 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 49%FY22 42%FY23 -37%FY24 -45%FY25 -65%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006852 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008245 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010749 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008245 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010749 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008245 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010749 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008245 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010749 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006852 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008245 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010749 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)