MeritValue

VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC.

VIAVdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.17 and $4.77 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.2B1$1.29B2$1.11B3$1B3$1.08B3
Net income$67.5M4$15.5M5$25.5M6−$25.8M6$34.8M6
Operating cash flow$243.3M7$178.1M8$114.1M9$116.4M9$89.8M9
Capital expenditure$52.1M10$72.5M11$51.1M12$19.5M12$27.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$191.2M7$105.6M8$63M9$96.9M9$62M9
Total debt$680.7M13$68.4M14$96.2M15$016$246.2M16
Cash & equivalents$697.8M17$559.9M18$506.5M19$471.3M20$423.6M20
Diluted shares236.3M238.2M226.6M222.6M225.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.91

10 shares is a claim on $34.57 of net worth that earned you $1.54 and generated $2.75 of cash last year, against $10.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 25%FY23 16%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 64% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.17 and $4.77 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$63M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$63M
Earnings Power Value
$1.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.77
Base0.0%$4.77
Bull5.0%$5.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-03 · accession 0000912093-22-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000912093-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000912093-24-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000912093-25-000096 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)