MeritValue

VISTA GOLD CORP

VGZdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

VISTA GOLD CORP earns about -52% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$03$04$04
Net income−$15.2M5−$4.93M6−$6.59M7$11.2M8−$7.5M8
Operating cash flow−$10.6M9−$7.41M10−$5.86M11−$5.74M12−$6.61M12
Capital expenditure$139,00013$5,00014$51,00015$344,00016$592,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.8M9−$7.42M10−$5.91M11−$6.08M12−$7.21M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$12.8M17$8.11M18$6.07M19$17M20$13.6M20
Diluted shares110.3M118.0M120.5M125.6M125.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.6
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.58
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.21 of net worth that earned you −$0.6 and generated −$0.58 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-52% avg · 5y
FY21 -783%FY22 -203%FY23 —FY24 1175%FY25 -399%

It earned an average -52% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000783324-23-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000783324-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783324-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783324-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000783324-23-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000783324-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783324-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783324-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000783324-23-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000783324-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783324-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783324-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000783324-23-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000783324-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783324-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783324-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000783324-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000783324-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783324-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783324-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)