MeritValue

Verde Clean Fuels, Inc.

VGASdata completeness 63%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Verde Clean Fuels, Inc. earns about -6502% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$474,5851$2.72M2−$2.74M3−$3.33M4−$6.96M4
Operating cash flow−$528,2835−$3.28M6−$9.11M7−$8.88M8−$8.89M8
Capital expenditure—$4,4119$58,58810$2.55M11$7.69M11
Free cash flow (derived)—−$3.28M6−$9.17M7−$11.4M8−$16.6M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$505,51812$463,47513$28.8M14$19M15$57.2M15
Diluted shares4.0M—6.1M6.3M—

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6502% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -17798%FY24 -504%FY25 -1205%

It earned an average -6502% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+56% shares · 5y

Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027258 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021763 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027258 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021763 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027258 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021763 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-025539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-027258 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015480 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021763 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)