MeritValue

Venture Global, Inc.

VGdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Venture Global, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.9B1$4.97B1$13.8B1
Net income$3.62B2$1.75B2$2.73B2
Operating cash flow$4.55B3$2.15B3$6.57B3
Capital expenditure$8.09B4$13.7B4$13.4B4
Free cash flow (derived)−$3.54B3−$11.6B3−$6.8B3
Total debt—$58.6B5$68.4B5
Cash & equivalents$5.87B6$3.61B7$2.36B7
Diluted shares2.14B2.58B2.63B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.37
Free cash flow it threw off
−$25.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$259.62

10 shares is a claim on $25.59 of net worth that earned you $10.37 and generated −$25.8 of cash last year, against $259.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 3y

Share count is up 23% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$10.75
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.73B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002007855-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)