MeritValue

Vera Therapeutics, Inc.

VERAdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Vera Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -71% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 378% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$32.6M1−$89.1M2−$96M3−$152.1M3−$299.6M3
Operating cash flow−$23.7M4−$67.6M5−$92.2M6−$134.7M6−$241.1M6
Capital expenditure$07$62,0008$63,0009$972,0009$630,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.7M4−$67.7M5−$92.2M6−$135.7M6−$241.7M6
Total debt$4.92M10$24.8M11$49.9M12$50.7M13$74.8M13
Cash & equivalents$79.7M14$43.5M15$45.7M16$92.6M17$354.7M17
Diluted shares13.4M26.6M42.7M55.3M64.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$94.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$46.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−$37.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.65

10 shares is a claim on $94.11 of net worth that earned you −$46.64 and generated −$37.63 of cash last year, against $11.65 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-71% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -119%FY23 -69%FY24 -22%FY25 -73%

It earned an average -71% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+378% shares · 5y

Share count is up 378% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1420% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010288 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036729 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010288 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036729 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010288 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036729 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077442 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010288 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036729 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029969 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077442 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010288 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-036729 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)