MeritValue

VEON Ltd.

VEONdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

VEON Ltd. earns about 15% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.73 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.85B1$3.76B2$3.7B3$4B3$4.4B3
Net income$801M4−$9M5−$2.45B6$487M6$591M6
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure$699M7$634M8$531M9$627M9$733M9
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.6B10$6.67B11$3.71B12$3.35B13$3.14B13
Cash & equivalents$2.25B14$3.11B15$1.9B16$1.69B17$1.73B17
Diluted shares1.76B1.76B1.76B1.85B1.85B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.2
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$17

10 shares is a claim on $7.25 of net worth that earned you $3.2 last year, against $17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 18%FY23 14%FY24 18%FY25 21%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 59% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 1 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$487M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468091-24-000076 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468091-25-000058 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468091-26-000010 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468091-24-000076 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468091-25-000058 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468091-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468091-24-000076 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468091-25-000058 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468091-26-000010 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468091-23-000080 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468091-24-000076 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468091-25-000058 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001468091-26-000010 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468091-23-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468091-24-000076 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468091-25-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001468091-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)