MeritValue

Velo3D, Inc.

VELOdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Velo3D, Inc. earns about -97% on invested capital, and has bought back 72% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.4M1$78.7M2$77.4M3$41M4$46M4
Net income−$107.1M5$7.97M6−$135.1M7−$69.7M8−$71.4M8
Operating cash flow−$56.4M9−$124M10−$105.6M11−$32.7M12−$27.3M12
Capital expenditure$9.62M13$13.8M14$1.05M15$9,00016$2.72M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$66M9−$137.8M10−$106.7M11−$32.7M12−$30M12
Total debt—$8.36M17$44M18$5.99M19$31M20
Cash & equivalents$207.6M21$32M22$24.5M23$1.21M24$39M24
Diluted shares58.7M202.2M5.6M847,26516.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$23.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$43.28
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.81

10 shares is a claim on $23.14 of net worth that earned you −$43.28 and generated −$18.22 of cash last year, against $18.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-97% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 7%FY23 -113%FY24 -96%FY25 -187%

It earned an average -97% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−72% shares · 5y

Share count is down 72% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 271% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001825079-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001825079-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047760 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134997 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)