Velocity Financial, Inc.
VELdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Velocity Financial, Inc. earns about 50% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.19 and $16.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $29.2M1 | $32.2M2 | $52.3M3 | $68.4M3 | $105.1M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $57.6M4 | $48.7M5 | $48.8M6 | $37.8M6 | $18.2M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $135,0007 | $326,0008 | $180,0009 | $289,0009 | $281,0009 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $57.5M4 | $48.3M5 | $48.7M6 | $37.5M6 | $17.9M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $36M10 | $45.2M11 | $40.6M12 | $49.9M12 | $92.1M12 |
| Diluted shares | 34.0M | 34.1M | 34.5M | 35.8M | 38.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $176.16 of net worth that earned you $27.52 and generated $4.68 of cash last year.
It earned about 50% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.19 and $16.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$37.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$37.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$52.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $16.43 |
| Base | 0.0% | $16.43 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $19.83 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032142 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037433 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102677 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037433 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102677 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037433 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102677 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032142 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037433 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-102677 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)