MeritValue

VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC

VECOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.05 and $13.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$583.3M1$646.1M2$666.4M3$717.3M3$664.3M3
Net income$26M4$166.9M5−$30.4M6$73.7M6$35.4M6
Operating cash flow$67.7M7$108.5M8$61.7M9$63.8M9$69.5M9
Capital expenditure$40.6M10$24.6M11$27.9M12$18.1M12$16.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.1M7$83.9M8$33.7M9$45.7M9$53.3M9
Total debt$458.9M13$549.3M13$549.9M14$552.4M15$452M15
Cash & equivalents$119.7M16$154.9M17$158.8M18$145.6M19$163.5M19
Diluted shares53.6M65.6M53.8M61.6M60.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$74.6

10 shares is a claim on $146.14 of net worth that earned you $5.84 and generated $8.8 of cash last year, against $74.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 6%FY23 -1%FY24 7%FY25 4%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.05 and $13.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$45.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$45.7M
Earnings Power Value
$6.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.47
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.01
Base8.1%$10.47
Bull13.1%$13.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001289 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019711 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)