VERACYTE, INC.
VCYTdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on fileVERACYTE, INC. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.55 and $19.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $219.5M1 | $296.5M2 | $361.1M3 | $445.8M3 | $517.1M3 |
| Net income | −$75.6M4 | −$36.6M5 | −$74.4M6 | $24.1M6 | $66.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$31.6M7 | $7.54M8 | $44.2M9 | $75.1M9 | $136.3M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.38M10 | $8.55M11 | $9.96M12 | $11.3M12 | $9.68M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$37M7 | −$1.01M8 | $34.3M9 | $63.8M9 | $126.6M9 |
| Total debt | $1.13M13 | $014 | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $173.2M15 | $154.2M16 | $216.5M17 | $239.1M17 | $362.6M17 |
| Diluted shares | 67.9M | 71.5M | 72.6M | 78.2M | 80.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $162.53 of net worth that earned you $8.24 and generated $15.72 of cash last year.
It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.55 and $19.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$63.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$63.8M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $15.82 |
| Base | 5.0% | $18.55 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $21.83 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001384101-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001384101-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001384101-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001384101-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-22-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-23-000016 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001384101-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001384101-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001384101-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)