MeritValue

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.

VCTRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $43.46 and $63.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$890.3M1$854.8M2$821M3$893.5M3$1.31B3
Net income$278.4M4$275.5M5$213.2M6$288.9M6$330.1M6
Operating cash flow$376.2M7$335.2M8$330.3M9$340M9$385.5M9
Capital expenditure$12.7M10$5.25M11$5.17M12$1.28M12$4.16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$363.5M7$330M8$325.1M9$338.7M9$381.3M9
Total debt$1.13B13$985.5M14$989.3M15$963.9M16$970M16
Cash & equivalents$69.5M17$38.2M18$123.5M19$126.7M20$163.7M20
Diluted shares74.2M72.3M68.2M65.9M66.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$365.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$146.14

10 shares is a claim on $365.3 of net worth that earned you $49.73 and generated $57.45 of cash last year, against $146.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 15%FY23 14%FY24 18%FY25 12%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $43.46 and $63.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$59.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.9%
  • fcfBase$338.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.9%
  • fcfBase$338.7M
Earnings Power Value
$43.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$278.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$57.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.76
Base0.9%$63.62
Bull5.9%$81.84

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006124 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006124 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022869 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)