MeritValue

Vericel Corp

VCELdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vericel Corp earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.03 and $6.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$153.1M1$163.7M2$197.5M3$237.2M3$276.3M3
Net income−$7.47M4−$16.7M5−$3.18M6$10.4M6$16.5M6
Operating cash flow$29M7$17.7M8$35.3M9$58.2M9$51.9M9
Capital expenditure$7.92M10$7.6M11$20M12$64M12$27.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$21.1M7$10.1M8$15.3M9−$5.81M9$24.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.3M13$51.1M14$69.1M15$74.5M15$100.1M15
Diluted shares46.5M47.1M47.6M51.7M52.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $68 of net worth that earned you $3.17 and generated $4.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -9%FY23 -1%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.03 and $6.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.11
Base0.8%$6.26
Bull5.8%$7.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007824 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008447 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007824 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008447 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007824 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008447 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007824 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008447 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007824 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008447 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)